Industrial Production Index and Subjective Forecasts: An approach based on the confidence of the manufacturing companies

The industrial production index is one of the most important indicators for assessing the health of a country’s economy. When it comes to official data, the problem of delays in the publication of provisional estimates is a very topical issue. To this end, it is essential to have advance estimates of these indicators. Many studies have attempted to provide forecasts of the future trend of this indicator using different statistical models based on possible relationships with other micro- or macroeconomic variables. This study proposes a forecasting approach based on the subjective expectations about the future provided by entrepreneurs in manufacturing companies.